Study of Weekly Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients (wCCyd)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientdlrandomizationsubject hasprostate
  Phrases that lowered it: breastopen labelstemimpairmentsubjects
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13429 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 58818 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02204241 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study of Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed And/Or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients (CPD) NCT02185820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Carfilzomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone (CRd) vs Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone (Rd) in Subjects With Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT01080391 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01346787 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Carfilzomib + High Dose Melphalan as Preparative Regimen for Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT01690143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.