Treatment of Newly Diagnosed Moderate or Severe Chronic Graft-versus-host Disease With Prednisone and Everolimus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-31, after 2013-03-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acuteheartsyndromeassociatedchronic
Phrases that lowered it: trial20clinicalparticipation inmoderate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 30 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 27 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Rituximab Combined With Prednisone for the Initial Treatment of Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT01066598 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Chronic Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0801) NCT01106833 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- In-vivo Regulatory T Cell Enhancement With Cyclophosphamide and Sirolimus NCT01453140 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0802) NCT01002742 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Steroid-free Treatment for Standard-Risk aGVHD (BMT CTN 1501) NCT02806947 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.