Nilotinib Roll-over Protocol for Patients in Novartis-sponsored Nilotinib Study and Benefiting From Nilotinib Treatment

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the investigatoras determinedstudydetermined byterm safety
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whotumorssafety ofgastrointestinaloncology
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 524 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 305 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Nilotinib in Adult Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors Resistant to Imatinib and Sunitinib. NCT01289028 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nilotinib in Adult Patients With Imatinib Resistant or - Intolerant Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in Blast Crisis, Accelerated Phase or Chronic Phase NCT01126892 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nilotinib Versus Imatinib in GIST Patients NCT00785785 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of AMN107 in Patients With GastroIntestinal Stromal Tumors (GIST) Who Have Failed Both Imatinib and Sunitinib NCT00718562 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib in PH+, BCR-, ABL+ CML Patients NCT01535391 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.