A Study of Cabozantinib (XL184) vs Everolimus in Subjects With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerrandomizationcellpriortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: renaleverolimusweeks beforewithin weekstype
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5978 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2 Study of Cabozantinib in Japanese Participants With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03339219 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• CANTATA: CB-839 With Cabozantinib vs. Cabozantinib With Placebo in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03428217 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• CB-839 With Everolimus vs. Placebo With Everolimus in Participants With Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT03163667 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) vs. Everolimus in Pre-Treated Advanced or Metastatic Clear-cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (CheckMate 025) NCT01668784 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of E7080 Alone, and in Combination With Everolimus in Subjects With Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Following One Prior Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF)-Targeted Treatment NCT01136733 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.