Beta 3 Agonist Treatment in Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurecardiacdeterminepatients with
  Phrases that lowered it: bmimass indexbody massmmhgblood pressure
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Beta 3 Agonist Treatment in Heart Failure-2 NCT03926754 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Efficacy of Mirabegron, a New beta3-adrenergic Receptor in the Prevention of Heart Failure NCT02599480 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Metoprolol XR in Heart Failure With Normal Ejection Fraction NCT03882710 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of MTP-131 in Subjects With Congestive Heart Failure NCT02388464 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Multiple Dose Study in Heart Failure of BAY 1067197 NCT02040233 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.