Assessment of Efficacy of Mirabegron, a New beta3-adrenergic Receptor in the Prevention of Heart Failure
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-02-16, after 2016-09-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartfailureventricularthe subjectcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: the trialparticipantsthe efficacypatientsdiastolic -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 13 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 13 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8687 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3058 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 41.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mirabegron
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Beta 3 Agonist Treatment in Heart Failure NCT01876433 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Beta 3 Agonist Treatment in Heart Failure-2 NCT03926754 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Effect of Elamipretide on Left Ventricular Function in Subjects With Stable Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02788747 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Spironolactone in the Treatment of Heart Failure NCT04727073 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of GeranylGeranylAcetone in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT05672134 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.