Evaluation of GeranylGeranylAcetone in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-08-30, after 2023-04-26 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heart failurecarcinomaacutechronictherapy
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectparticipantsevaluate theto evaluate -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 85 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Patient-reported Outcomes in Vericiguat-treated Patients With HFpEF NCT03547583 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- A Study of Vericiguat (MK-1242) in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-035) NCT05093933 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- A Study of Vericiguat in Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-001) NCT02861534 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Beginning a Randomized Evaluation of the AGE Breaker Alagebrium in Diastolic Heart Failure (BREAK-DHF-I) NCT00662116 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.