A Study of Vericiguat in Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-001)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-09-02, after 2016-09-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosubjectscoronaryrandomizationheart
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmkand safetyefficacy andheterosexual -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1157 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1157 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 110 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vericiguat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Patient-reported Outcomes in Vericiguat-treated Patients With HFpEF NCT03547583 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- A Study of Vericiguat (MK-1242) in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-035) NCT05093933 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- A Study to Learn How Safe Starting Vericiguat at a Dose of 5 Milligrams is in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT06195930 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of GeranylGeranylAcetone in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT05672134 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Inorganic Nitrite to Amplify the Benefits and Tolerability of Exercise Training in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) (INABLE-Training) NCT02713126 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.