A Study to Learn How Safe Starting Vericiguat at a Dose of 5 Milligrams is in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailureventricularchronicfraction
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmgmonths beforevisitdays before
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1023 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Vericiguat in Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-001) NCT02861534 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Safe Study Drug BAY2413555 is, How it Affects the Body, and How it Moves Into, Through, and Out of the Body Over 4 Weeks of Use in Participants With Heart Failure and Implanted Cardiac Defibrillator or Cardiac Resynchronization Devices (ICD/CRT) NCT05532046 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib/IIa Trial With AC01 in Patients With HFrEF NCT05642507 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• QUantum Genomics Incremental Dosing in Heart Failure - QUID-HF NCT02780180 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Vericiguat (MK-1242) in Participants With Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) (MK-1242-035) NCT05093933 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.