A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Safety of Rivaroxaban in Reducing the Risk of Death, Myocardial Infarction or Stroke in Participants With Heart Failure and Coronary Artery Disease Following an Episode of Decompensated Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failureheartcoronaryarterymyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyindexsafety ofvisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6303 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Six Months Efficacy and Safety of Aliskiren Therapy on Top of Standard Therapy, on Morbidity and Mortality in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT00894387 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety of BMS-986259 in Participants With Post-Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04318093 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy (Effect on Disease) and Safety of Finerenone in Participants With Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction (Proportion of Blood Expelled Per Heart Stroke) Greater or Equal to 40% NCT04435626 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban for the Prevention of Major Cardiovascular Events in Coronary or Peripheral Artery Disease NCT01776424 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Changes in NT-proBNP, Safety, and Tolerability in HFpEF Patients With a WHF Event (HFpEF Decompensation) Who Have Been Stabilized and Initiated at the Time of or Within 30 Days Post-decompensation (PARAGLIDE-HF) NCT03988634 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.