Study of the Safety of BMS-986259 in Participants With Post-Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurebmsventricularacute
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstrialvisitsafety ofevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 720 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Continuous Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Patients With Heart Failure and Impaired Systolic Function NCT03357731 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of 48-Hour Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure NCT03016325 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Study of Continuous 8-Hour Intravenous Administrations of BMS-986231 in Participants With Heart Failure and Reduced Heart Function Given a Standard Dose of Loop Diuretic NCT03730961 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986224 in Healthy Subjects and Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT03281122 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• BAY58-2667 Dose Finding Trial Investigating Fixed Doses in Patients With Acute Decompensated Chronic Congestive Heart Failure (ADHF) NCT01065077 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.