An Investigational Study of Continuous 8-Hour Intravenous Administrations of BMS-986231 in Participants With Heart Failure and Reduced Heart Function Given a Standard Dose of Loop Diuretic

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartplacebodouble blindrandomized doublecontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: mgpatientsdose of20at screening
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 641 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 235980 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Continuous Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Patients With Heart Failure and Impaired Systolic Function NCT03357731 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986224 in Healthy Subjects and Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT03281122 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of 48-Hour Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure NCT03016325 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety of BMS-986259 in Participants With Post-Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04318093 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety of BAY1067197 in Stable Heart Failure Patients on Standard Therapy Including ß-blocker NCT01945606 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.