A Study of BMS-986224 in Healthy Subjects and Heart Failure Patients With Reduced Ejection Fraction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-04-17, after 2017-09-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsheartventricularfailureleft
Phrases that lowered it: healthynicotinejapanesescreeningpatients -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 585 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 585 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Continuous Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Patients With Heart Failure and Impaired Systolic Function NCT03357731 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- An Investigational Study of Continuous 8-Hour Intravenous Administrations of BMS-986231 in Participants With Heart Failure and Reduced Heart Function Given a Standard Dose of Loop Diuretic NCT03730961 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Study of the Safety of BMS-986259 in Participants With Post-Acute Decompensated Heart Failure NCT04318093 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of 48-Hour Infusions of HNO (Nitroxyl) Donor in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure NCT03016325 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Drug Levels, and Drug Effects of BMS-986308 in Healthy Participants NCT04763226 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.