HMPL-004 Maintenance Treatment in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Ulcerative Colitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2014-10-31, after 2013-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerremissioncelltherapydisease
Phrases that lowered it: subjectsmoderatethe trialmildstudy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase III Trial of HMPL-004 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01805791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT04882007 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of PBF-677 in Ulcerative Colitis Patients NCT03773952 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of ST-0529 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03844932 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of Bertilimumab in Patients With Active Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01671956 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.