Study of OSE-127 vs Placebo in Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientadequateulnpriortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatetopicalinclusivescreeningto severe
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic of Bertilimumab in Patients With Active Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT01671956 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Phase III Trial of HMPL-004 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01805791 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of ST-0529 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03844932 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of TJ301 IV in Participants With Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03235752 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• HMPL-004 Maintenance Treatment in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Ulcerative Colitis NCT01882764 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.