Phase II Trial to Validate Markers for a Response Evaluation of a Combined Therapy in Patients With HER2+ Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrenttumorcancerstageii trial
  Phrases that lowered it: copiestrial todays prior80clinical
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7966 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 31941 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PAM50 HER2-enriched Phenotype as a Predictor of Response to Dual HER2 Blockade in HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01973660 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Phase II Trial in Patients With T1c Operable, HER2-positive Breast Cancer According to TOP2A Status NCT02339532 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study With Pembrolizumab in Combination With Dual Anti-HER2 Blockade With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab in Early Breast Cancer Patients With Molecular HER2-enriched Intrinsic Subtype (Keyriched-1) NCT03988036 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Pharmacogenomic Study of Neoadjuvant Eribulin for HER2 Non-overexpressing Breast Cancer NCT01669252 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant 5-fluorouracil, Epirubicin and Cyclophosphamide (FEC) Followed by Weekly Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab in Her2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT01340430 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.