Phase 2 Study to Evaluate LUM001 in Combination With Ursodeoxycholic Acid in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: primarywomentransplantrandomized doublediagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationcomparedailymoderatestudy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of LUM001 in the Treatment of Cholestatic Liver Disease in Patients With Alagille Syndrome NCT01903460 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of NGM282 in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis NCT02026401 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASC42 Tablets in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cholangitis NCT05190523 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Elafibranor in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and Inadequate Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid NCT03124108 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study of Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) Who Had an Inadequate Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid NCT01389973 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.