Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASC42 Tablets in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cholangitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnsubjects within subjectsliverevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatescreeningdaysafety
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Elafibranor in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and Inadequate Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid NCT03124108 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• ENHANCE: Seladelpar in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) and an Inadequate Response to or an Intolerance to Ursodeoxycholic Acid (UDCA) NCT03602560 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Cilofexor in Adults With Primary Biliary Cholangitis Without Cirrhosis NCT02943447 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of EDP-305 in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cholangitis NCT03394924 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Norursodeoxycholic Acid in the Treatment of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis NCT01755507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.