Norursodeoxycholic Acid in the Treatment of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboapplyintendedwomen ofprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: endocrinediseasestrialhistory ordose
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Research Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of DUR-928 in Subjects With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) NCT03394781 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study of NGM282 in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis NCT02704364 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASC42 Tablets in Subjects With Primary Biliary Cholangitis NCT05190523 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Cilofexor in Adults With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Without Cirrhosis NCT02943460 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, and Tolerability, and Efficacy of Seladelpar in Patients With PSC NCT04024813 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.