A Study of NGM282 in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-06-30, after 2016-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Norursodeoxycholic Acid in the Treatment of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis NCT01755507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of NGM282 in Patients With Primary Biliary Cirrhosis NCT02026401 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Phase 2a Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of PLN-74809 in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC) NCT04480840 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, and Tolerability, and Efficacy of Seladelpar in Patients With PSC NCT04024813 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Cilofexor in Adults With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Without Cirrhosis NCT02943460 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.