INC280 and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancersmall cellnon smallerlotinib
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalweeksdrugdrugssolid
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 57.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selumetinib and Paclitaxel as Second-Line Treatment in Treating Patients With Stage IIIB-IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02503358 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study of Capmatinib (INC280) in NSCLC Patients With MET Exon 14 Alterations Who Have Received Prior MET Inhibitor NCT02750215 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Capmatinib Plus Trametinib for the Treatment of Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer With MET Exon 14 Skipping Mutation NCT05435846 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Bintrafusp Alfa With Chemotherapy for Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor-Resistant EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04971187 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib NCT01487265 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.