Phase II Study of Eribulin Mesylate, Trastuzumab, and Pertuzumab in Women With Metastatic, Unresectable Locally Advanced, or Locally Recurrent HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2subjecteligibletrastuzumab
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialupperweeksgroup
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Immunogenicity of Test Pertuzumab (ZRC-3277, Cadila Healthcare Ltd.,) NCT05283837 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Eribulin Plus Lapatinib in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (E-VITA) NCT01534455 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Phase1 of Neratinib+Trastuzumab, Pertuzumab, Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors/HER2+ NCT02593708 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
• Phase II Lapatinib Plus Nab-Paclitaxel As First And Second Line Therapy In her2+ MBC NCT00709761 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.