Proof-of-Concept Trial of CERC-501 Augmentation of Antidepressant Therapy in Treatment-Resistant Depression

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: months priorto screeningthe subjectstableprior to
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgparticipantpastdisorderparticipants
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 391 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of Ketamine Therapy in Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) NCT01920555 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Brexpiprazole as Adjunctive Therapy in the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder NCT03487198 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Double-Blind Trial of Ketamine Therapy Plus or Minus Naltrexone in Treatment Resistant Depression (TRD) NCT02911597 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study to Explore the Efficacy of JNJ-67953964 in the Treatment of Depression NCT03559192 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Opiate Suicide Study in Patients With Major Depression NCT04116528 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.