Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial of Ketamine Therapy in Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningstablesubjectplacebomonths prior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspressurehypertensionmmhg28
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 471 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 192 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Proof-of-Concept Trial of CERC-501 Augmentation of Antidepressant Therapy in Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT01913535 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• NRX101 Glx Biomarker Validation Study NCT03402152 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Double-Blind Trial of Ketamine Therapy Plus or Minus Naltrexone in Treatment Resistant Depression (TRD) NCT02911597 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Biomarkers of Response to Ketamine in Depression: MRI and Blood Assays Before and After Open Label Intranasal Ketamine NCT04216888 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• Opiate Suicide Study in Patients With Major Depression NCT04116528 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.