Study of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Treat Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-05-01, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsstembiopsyfibrosisbone
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatemoderatemild tosafety -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Allogeneic Human Cells (hMSC)in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Via Intravenous Delivery (AETHER) NCT02013700 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Phase I/IIa Clinical Trial of Human Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cell Injection in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT05468502 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Clinical Efficacy and Safety of Autologous Lung Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02745184 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Macitentan Use in an Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Clinical Study NCT00903331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Patients With Rapidly Progressive Interstitial Lung Disease NCT02594839 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.