Phase I/IIa Clinical Trial of Human Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cell Injection in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-01, after 2022-10-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectspulmonaryseverecordmonths
Phrases that lowered it: diseasespatientsinvestigatordrugsclinical -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of VUM02 Injection in Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06230822 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Human Cells (hMSC)in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Via Intravenous Delivery (AETHER) NCT02013700 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Clinical Efficacy and Safety of Autologous Lung Stem Cell Transplantation in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02745184 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Study of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Treat Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT01919827 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3915393 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06317285 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.