A Study to Compare Denosumab With Zoledronic Acid in Subjects With Bone Metastases From Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastasescancerpatientbonewomen
  Phrases that lowered it: malepharmacokineticsubjectssubjectproducts
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1820 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 325 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8187 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Denosumab in Treating Patients With ER and/or PR Positive, HER2 Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer With Bone Metastases and Detectable Circulating Tumor Cells NCT03070002 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• China HVT Safety, PK, PD NCT02135640 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Bioequivalence Study of Denosumab CP4 Drug Product and Commercially Available Denosumab CP2 Drug Product NCT02053753 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Denosumab for Breast Cancer With Bone Mets NCT01952054 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Denosumab and Ibandronate in Postmenopausal Women Sub-Optimally Treated With Daily or Weekly Bisphosphonates NCT00936897 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.