Active Symptom Control Alone or With mFOLFOX Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced/ Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustevidenceheartbearingfunction
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasestrialinvestigatorparticipate into participate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44706 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Randomized Trial of SLOG vs GC in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03406299 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• BIBW 2992 as add-on to Gem/Cis in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT01679405 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• FOLFIRINOX for 2nd-line Treatment of BTC NCT03778593 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• ABC-08: Phase Ib Trial of Acelarin in Combination With Cisplatin in Locally Advanced/ Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancers NCT02351765 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Bevacizumab in Combination With Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Untreated, Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04677504 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.