FOLFIRINOX for 2nd-line Treatment of BTC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapymetastaticgemcitabinecisplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseclinicalhcvto evaluateline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 134796 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22925 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized Study of GEMOX With or Without Cetuximab in Locally Advanced and Metastatic BTC NCT01267344 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Phase II Randomized Trial of SLOG vs GC in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03406299 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Second Line Therapy in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT01530503 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab-pkrb Combined With Modified FOLFOX-6 in Biliary Tract Cancer Patients Progressed on First Line Therapy NCT04722133 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Active Symptom Control Alone or With mFOLFOX Chemotherapy for Locally Advanced/ Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancers NCT01926236 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.