Acute Dosing of MK-8892 in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) (MK-8892-003)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 998 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartsafety tolerabilitysubjectspulmonaryhours
  Phrases that lowered it: visitopenlabelmkmonotherapy
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics (PK) of MK-8892 in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) (MK-8892-005) NCT01926509 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sotatercept in Japanese Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) Participants (MK-7962-020) NCT05818137 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Frespaciguat (MK-5475) in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (INSIGNIA-PAH: Phase 2/3 Study of an Inhaled sGC Stimulator in PAH) (MK-5475-007) NCT04732221 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Dose-response Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Beraprost Sodium Modified Release (BPS-MR) in Patients With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) NCT00989963 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sotatercept for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (MK-7962-003/A011-11)(STELLAR) NCT04576988 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.