Abatacept to Treat Steroid Refractory Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breastdonorsubjectgraftpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdrugmultipledays
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Prospective Study of Remestemcel-L, Ex-vivo Cultured Adult Human Mesenchymal Stromal Cells, for the Treatment of Pediatric Participants Who Have Failed to Respond to Steroid Treatment for Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (aGVHD) NCT02336230 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study of BEGEDINA® vs Conventional Treatment for Treating Steroid-Resistant Acute GvHD NCT02411084 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Activity of KD025 in Subjects With Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease NCT02841995 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Trial of Low-Dose Interleukin-2 (IL-2) Added to Extra-Corporeal Photopheresis for Steroid-Refractory cGVHD NCT02340676 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of Individual Adult and Pediatric Patient Dose-escalated Interleukin-2 Therapy for Refractory Chronic GVHD NCT02318082 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.