Study of Individual Adult and Pediatric Patient Dose-escalated Interleukin-2 Therapy for Refractory Chronic GVHD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (74 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantchronicdonorhla
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmgweeksrefractory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 205 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 582 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Trial of Low-Dose Interleukin-2 (IL-2) Added to Extra-Corporeal Photopheresis for Steroid-Refractory cGVHD NCT02340676 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• A Prospective Study of Remestemcel-L, Ex-vivo Cultured Adult Human Mesenchymal Stromal Cells, for the Treatment of Pediatric Participants Who Have Failed to Respond to Steroid Treatment for Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (aGVHD) NCT02336230 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of GNKG168 in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and Acute Myelogenous Leukemia NCT01743807 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Itacitinib for the Treatment of Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT04200365 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Abatacept to Treat Steroid Refractory Chronic Graft Versus Host Disease (cGVHD) NCT01954979 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.