AZD6738 First Time in Patient Multiple Ascending Dose Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellheartcardiaculnfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: to investigateinvestigate thepharmacokineticsopen labelrelevant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1204 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of AZD6738, DNA Damage Repair/Novel Anti-cancer Agent, in Combination With Paclitaxel, in Refractory Cancer NCT02630199 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Absorption, Metabolism, Excretion and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose [14C]AZD2014 Followed by a Multiple Dose Phase NCT02640755 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD0466 Monotherapy or in Combination in Patients With Advanced Haematological Malignancies NCT04865419 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate AZD7648 Alone and in Combination With Other Anti-cancer Agents in Patients With Advanced Cancers. NCT03907969 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of AZD0466 in Patients With Advanced Hematologic or Solid Tumors NCT04214093 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.