Absorption, Metabolism, Excretion and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose [14C]AZD2014 Followed by a Multiple Dose Phase

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartventricularlungsyndromepaclitaxel
  Phrases that lowered it: singleopen labelpharmacokineticssolidperiod
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 187 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1345 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6114 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 25991 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate AZD7648 Alone and in Combination With Other Anti-cancer Agents in Patients With Advanced Cancers. NCT03907969 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Study to Determine MTD of AZD1775 Monotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumours. NCT02610075 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study to Assess the Effect of Food on AZD1775 Pharmacokinetics in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT03315091 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• AZD6738 First Time in Patient Multiple Ascending Dose Study NCT01955668 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD6738, DNA Damage Repair/Novel Anti-cancer Agent, in Combination With Paclitaxel, in Refractory Cancer NCT02630199 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.