Effect of Alirocumab on Lipid Metabolism in Adults With Elevated LDL-Cholesterol

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: effectscoronaryldlcholesteroldoses of
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymetabolismclinical trialmgscreening
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 735 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Study To Evaluate Alirocumab in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia Not Treated With a Statin (ODYSSEY CHOICE II) NCT02023879 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Alirocumab in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia Not Adequately Controlled With Non-statin Lipid Modifying Therapy or the Lowest Strength of Statin NCT02584504 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Evaluation of Alirocumab (SAR236553/REGN727) in Patients With Primary Hypercholesterolemia on Stable Atorvastatin Therapy in Japan NCT01812707 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Alirocumab in Addition to Lipid-Modifying Therapy in Patients With High Cardiovascular Risk and Hypercholesterolemia in South Korea and Taiwan NCT02289963 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study of Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Subcutaneous (SC) Administered Alirocumab in Healthy Chinese Subjects NCT02979015 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.