Phase 2 Study of Montelukast for the Treatment of Sickle Cell Anemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltreatedgreateranemiahydroxyurea
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscurrentasthmahistoryjudged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Hydroxyurea and EPO in Sickle Cell Disease NCT05451940 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Study the Safety and Tolerability of Memantin Mepha® in Sickle Cell Disease Patients NCT02615847 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics (PK) of Liquid Hydroxyurea in Pediatric Patients With Sickle Cell Anemia NCT01506544 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, Pharmacokinetic, and Pharmacodynamic Study of ALXN1820 in Adult Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT05565092 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.