Treatment of Optic Neuritis With Erythropoietin: a Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-26, after 2014-11-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboto determinedlretinalhepatitis virus
Phrases that lowered it: diseasespatientstrialadministrationaged -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 363 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 226 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erythropoietin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- OCS-05 in Patients With Optic Neuritis NCT04762017 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of RPh201 Treatment of Ischemic Optic Neuropathy (ION). NCT02045212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Systemic Erythropoietin Injection in Patients Having Optic Atrophy NCT04680143 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Optic Neuritis Recovery After Oral or IV Corticosteroids NCT01524250 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Treatment Trial 2 NCT03308448 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.