Systemic Erythropoietin Injection in Patients Having Optic Atrophy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-03-30, after 2020-09-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: erythropoietinsystemictrial ispurposeto study
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofhavingpatientsinjection -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 31 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 63 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3039 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 560 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erythropoietin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Optic Neuritis With Erythropoietin: a Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Trial NCT01962571 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Subcutaneous Injection of Erythropoietin on Visual Functions in Patients With Late Onset Optic Neuropathy NCT04469777 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Treatment Trial 2 NCT03308448 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Treatment Trial (TONTT) NCT01783847 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of RPh201 Treatment of Ischemic Optic Neuropathy (ION). NCT02045212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.