Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Treatment Trial (TONTT)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-02-28, after 2015-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: neuropathyconcurrentpatientsbreastto determine
Phrases that lowered it: effectsignificantdiseasesresultshaving -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 87 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12474 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 87 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 78884 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12474 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erythropoietin, methylprednisolone, prednisolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Treatment Trial 2 NCT03308448 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Optic Neuritis With Erythropoietin: a Randomised, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Trial NCT01962571 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Systemic Erythropoietin Injection in Patients Having Optic Atrophy NCT04680143 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Subcutaneous Injection of Erythropoietin on Visual Functions in Patients With Late Onset Optic Neuropathy NCT04469777 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- NT-501 CNTF Implant for Ischemic Optic Neuropathy: Safety, Neuroprotection and Neuroenhancement NCT01411657 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.