Individualization of Dosage of Irinotecan in the FOLFIRI According to the Genetic Polymorphism of UGT1A1 in the First Line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabmetastaticcancerpatientconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: respiratoryaccordingclinical trialdrugpatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Genotype-Directed Study Of Irinotecan Dosing In FOLFIRI + BevacizumabTreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02138617 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Genotype-guided Study of Irinotecan Administered in Combination With 5-fluorouracil/Leucovorin (FOLFIRI) and Bevacizumab in Advanced Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT01183494 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Individual Dosage Selection of Irinotecan (CPT-11) Based on UGT1A1 Genotype in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT01523431 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial to Assess FOLFIRI+Aflibercept Efficacy in Patients With Oxaliplatin-pretreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer With or Without ACE Polymorphisms NCT02970916 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Avastin for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as Salvage Treatment NCT00717990 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.