First Line Treatment of Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (283 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticchemotherapypatients mustcoronaryct
  Phrases that lowered it: drugdays beforestartdaypain
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11407 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 54936 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First-line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine NCT02564146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Nab-paclitaxel (Abraxane), Gemcitabine, and Capecitabine (Xeloda) for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01161186 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• 2nd-line Therapy With Nal-IRI After Gem/Nab-pac in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer - Predictive Role of 1st-line Therapy NCT03468335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study of Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine Followed by AG-mFOLFOX in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT02504333 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study of Botensilimab in Participants With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT05630183 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.