Anti-proliferative Effects of Vitamin D and Melatonin in Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-05-31, after 2013-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastcellsmetastaticvitamin
Phrases that lowered it: per dayto investigatecompareproductdose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6426 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2902 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- melatonin, vitamin d
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Development of Vitamin D as a Therapy for Breast Cancer - Phase 2 NCT00656019 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D and Breast Cancer: Does Weight Make a Difference? NCT01472445 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Safety, Feasibility and Efficacy of Vitamin D Supplementation in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer (SAFE-D) NCT02186015 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D in Postmenopausal Women at High Risk for Breast Cancer NCT00859651 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Ph I/II of Vitamin D on Bone Mineral Density & Markers of Bone Resorption NCT00904423 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.