Momelotinib Versus Ruxolitinib in Subjects With Myelofibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulntherapycountcelleligible
  Phrases that lowered it: drugessentialopen labelbloodthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 42.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy of Momelotinib Versus Best Available Therapy in Anemic or Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Primary Myelofibrosis (MF), Post-polycythemia Vera MF, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia MF NCT02101268 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study of Momelotinib Versus Danazol in Symptomatic and Anemic Myelofibrosis Participants (MOMENTUM) NCT04173494 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of Ruxolitinib in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PM), Post-polycythemia Vera (PV) Myelofibrosis, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia (ET) Myelofibrosis NCT02087059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Tolerability and Efficacy of Navitoclax Alone or in Combination With Ruxolitinib in Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT03222609 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• TGR-1202 + Ruxolitinib PMF PPV-MF PET-MF MDS/MPN Polycythemia Vera Resistant to Hydroxyurea NCT02493530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.