A Study of Momelotinib Versus Danazol in Symptomatic and Anemic Myelofibrosis Participants (MOMENTUM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationimagingmritherapypost
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelperiodjudgedtrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 35.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1645 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Momelotinib Versus Ruxolitinib in Subjects With Myelofibrosis NCT01969838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Momelotinib Versus Best Available Therapy in Anemic or Thrombocytopenic Subjects With Primary Myelofibrosis (MF), Post-polycythemia Vera MF, or Post-essential Thrombocythemia MF NCT02101268 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Single-Agent Glasdegib In Patients With Myelofibrosis Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT02226172 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• A Study Evaluating Tolerability and Efficacy of Navitoclax Alone or in Combination With Ruxolitinib in Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT03222609 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety Study Evaluating Twice-Daily Administration of Momelotinib in Primary Myelofibrosis or Post-Polycythemia Vera or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01423058 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.