MR Guided Phase II Radiotherapy Dose Escalation in Unresectable Non-Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelcancerchemotherapycellspatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsadministrationmalerespiratorydrug
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6891 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45942 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride With or Without WEE1 Inhibitor AZD1775 in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Pancreatic Cancer That Is Metastatic or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02194829 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Eryaspase in Combination With Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone as 2nd-Line Treatment in PAC NCT03665441 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine/Taxotere/Xeloda (GTX) With Cisplatin in Subjects With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01459614 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine Hydrochloride With or Without Erlotinib Hydrochloride Followed by the Same Chemotherapy Regimen With or Without Radiation Therapy and Capecitabine or Fluorouracil in Treating Patients With Pancreatic Cancer That Has Been Removed by Surgery NCT01013649 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Preoperative FOLFIRINOX Versus Gemcitabine/Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02243007 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.