Paclitaxel Albumin-Stabilized Nanoparticle Formulation and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride With or Without WEE1 Inhibitor AZD1775 in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Pancreatic Cancer That Is Metastatic or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient haspatients mustthe patientcancergemcitabine
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaselongupperlimit offormulation
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 873 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4249 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Metastatic Cancer and Advanced or Metastatic Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT01373164 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• MK-0646 and Gemcitabine +/- Erlotinib for Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT00769483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Nab-paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine in Chinese Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02017015 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• MR Guided Phase II Radiotherapy Dose Escalation in Unresectable Non-Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01972919 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• 2nd-line Therapy With Nal-IRI After Gem/Nab-pac in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer - Predictive Role of 1st-line Therapy NCT03468335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.