Effects of Niacin On Fatty Acid Trapping
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 7% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-31, after 2012-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 22 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 213 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 22 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 213 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 80 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10551 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2230 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niacin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combined Effects of Non-statin Treatments on Apolipoprotein A-I Up-Regulation (CENTAUR): A Feasibility Study NCT00728910 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Vascepa to Accelerate Lipoprotein Uptake and Elimination NCT03885661 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Study to Evaluate the Lipid Effects of TRIA-662 NCT02008084 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Extended-Release Niacin/ Laropiprant/Simvastatin Tablets in Participants With Hypercholesterolemia or Mixed Dyslipidemia (MK-0524B-143) NCT01335997 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- Comparison of EPA and DHA-Rich Fish Oils on Lipoprotein Metabolism In Adults NCT02514070 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.