Cardiovascular Outcomes Following Ertugliflozin Treatment in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Participants With Vascular Disease, The VERTIS CV Study (MK-8835-004)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 997 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartvascularcoronarysurgeryrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: metformintype diabetesscreening visitwith typethe screening
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess Cardiovascular Outcomes Following Treatment With Omarigliptin (MK-3102) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-3102-018) NCT01703208 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Ertugliflozin Monotherapy in the Treatment of Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Inadequate Glycemic Control Despite Diet and Exercise (MK-8835-003, VERTIS MONO) NCT01958671 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Ertugliflozin in the Treatment of Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control on Metformin and Sitagliptin (MK-8835-006; VERTIS SITA2) NCT02036515 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Ertugliflozin vs. Glimepiride in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) Participants on Metformin (MK-8835-002) NCT01999218 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ertugliflozin (MK-8835/PF-04971729) With Sitagliptin in the Treatment of Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) With Inadequate Glycemic Control on Diet and Exercise (MK-8835-017) NCT02226003 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.