A Study to Evaluate the Accuracy of a Subset of the Length-109 Probe Set Panel (a Genetic Test) in Predicting Response to Golimumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: administrationvaccinationprior toscreeningmonths of
  Phrases that lowered it: cellsparticipanttumorparticipantsactive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Golimumab in Ulcerative Colitis (UC) Patients With Loss of Response (LOR) Followed by Dose Optimization NCT03182166 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneously Administered Golimumab, a Human Anti-TNFα Antibody, in Pediatric Patients With Moderate to Severe Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT01900574 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Effectiveness Study of Golimumab in Japanese Patients With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis. NCT01863771 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Efficacy and Safety of Combination Therapy With Guselkumab and Golimumab in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03662542 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in the Induction and Maintenance of Remission in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02914522 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.