Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in the Induction and Maintenance of Remission in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: colitisplacebo controlleducin subjectsprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andthe efficacysafety of
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 306 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Filgotinib in the Induction and Maintenance of Remission in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02914561 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Ustekinumab Induction and Maintenance Therapy in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02407236 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib (ABT-494) in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03653026 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Filgotinib in Long-Term Extension Study of Adults With Ulcerative Colitis NCT02914535 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Etrolizumab Treatment in Maintenance of Disease Remission in Ulcerative Colitis (UC) Participants Who Are Naive to Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Inhibitors NCT02165215 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.